Was the 2024 Tokyo Marathon the Beginning of the End?
If you haven't read my preview of the 2024 Tokyo Marathon, don't bother: I got it all wrong. Benson Kipruto and Sutume Kebede led upsets on both sides, as Eliud Kipchoge and Sifan Hassan faded dramatically in the Japanese capital.
Elite Men
Is it too much to call it the Kipruto curse? When Benson Kipruto won yesterday's Tokyo Marathon, he secured his 11th international marathon medal, improved his personal best by almost two minutes, and broke the course record. But perhaps most impressively, he extended his unbeaten streak against Eliud Kipchoge.
In Kipchoge's twelve-year marathon career, nobody else has beaten him more than once: Kipruto is now three from three. The Kenyan selectors have named both men in their preliminary Olympic marathon squad: after Kipruto's performance yesterday – winning a race that contained almost half of said squad – it's a safe bet that both of them will be on the start line in Paris. Will Kipruto be the one to dethrone the Olympic champion?
Kipruto's win on the streets of Tokyo was a well-earned one. A group of four put almost two minutes into their nearest competitors within the first 10km, but they dropped the pace soon thereafter. Despite this, the gaps kept growing, and it became clear that this was a war of attrition: the winner wouldn't be the man who sped up the most, but the man who slowed down the least.
As mentioned, that man was not Kipchoge. By 20km, Kipchoge – who was part of the leading four – had slipped off the front group. One of the two remaining pacers dropped back to assist him, but quickly gave up as it became clear the Kenyan had no intention of returning to the lead. From that point, Kipchoge's race quickly fell apart. He was forced to negotiate the chase pack swallowing him and spitting him out the back as he laboured home to finish 10th in the worst race of his career.
Meanwhile, a game of cat and mouse was being played among the leaders. With Vincent Ngetich yoyoing off the rear, Timothy Kiplagat took the opportunity to drift into the lead and temporarily built a gap up the front. Kipruto fell back to join Ngetich, and the two worked their way back to Kiplagat as he waved and smiled to the cheering crowds. Clearly, Kiplagat was not determined to make his move stick so early in the race, so it was hardly a surprise when he was rejoined at the front as the trio passed 30km. That being said, his surge did seem to put some fatigue into the legs of Ngetich, and by 35km Kipruto and Kiplagat were the only two in contention for the gold.
The pair ran together until just before the 40km mark, where Kipruto did what Kiplagat hadn't: he committed to a decisive move. Putting 19 seconds into his rival by 40km, Kipruto stormed to a new course record of 2:02:16. Kiplagat snuck in under 2:03 for the silver, and Ngetich held it together to complete a Kenyan sweep of the medals.
"I don't know what happened to (Kipchoge)," Kipruto said after the race.
"But I'm so happy for the course record today.”
Despite Kipruto's impressive victory, the biggest story from the race centred around Kipchoge.
No other marathon world record holder in the history of World Athletics has finished a marathon past the age of 38. Kipchoge will turn 40 later this year and may need to rethink his approach to racing, much in the same way that Kenenisa Bekele had to. Bekele realised that, at 41, he had to rely on what had become his biggest asset: experience. That skill was on full display when he let a large group get away from him early in the Valencia Marathon last year, knowing that the pacing strategy would hurt many of the younger runners over the closing stages. Bekele had two groups in front of him and was down in 13th at halfway, but he managed to claw his way through the field to finish fourth in his fastest marathon since 2019.
Kenenisa Bekele finishes the 2023 Valencia Marathon in fourth
Perhaps it is time for Kipchoge to also start running within himself. Realistically, it's difficult to see him approaching the 2:01:09 he ran two years ago. If he can come to terms with this, he will stop opening races at such unsustainable paces – like yesterday's initial 10km, which put him on track to break the two-hour barrier. If he had let a few younger athletes suffer through an aggressive start by themselves, he almost certainly would have featured on the podium. Of course, the world's a much simpler place with the benefit of hindsight, but we know Kipchoge can still run under 2:03 in a sensible race (he showed us in Berlin not six months ago). That would have earned him at least a silver in Tokyo yesterday; instead, he paid dearly for his overzealous start and has now firmly lost the air of invincibility that surrounded him for the better part of a decade.
By no means is it time to bury Kipchoge's career. It just might be time for the man to reconsider how he races so that he can maintain his competitive edge at the Paris Olympics and beyond.
Elite Women
The elite women executed a far more sensible race. Surrounded by a strong contingent of Japanese men for support, the lead pack slowly whittled themselves down to a group of four - Sifan Hassan, Rosemary Wanjiru, Amane Shankule, and Sutume Kebede. Kebede took it upon herself to dictate much of the race and continued to turn the screws on her competitors by steadily increasing the pace over the middle stages. Pre-race favourite Hassan was the first victim of this strategy, as four became three around the 30km mark. A few kilometres later, that group shrunk again, and Shankule found herself in a similar position to Ngetich in the men's race as she tried to hold on for bronze.
As the leading pair ticked past 40km, Wanjiru stepped out to grab the drink that would prove her undoing. Kebede watched her rival move to pick up her bottle and timed her kick so that a sizeable gap had formed by the time Wanjiru looked up. Wanjiru realised her mistake and tried to mount a chase, but Kebede had already snapped the metaphorical elastic and charged home to a new course record of 2:15:55. Wanjiru crossed the line behind her in 2:16:14, and Shankule dipped under 2:17 for third.
"I am so happy, I don't really have words for it," said Kebede.
"It's my first victory and I don't have the words to express how happy I am about that."
Hassan finished fourth in 2:18:05, almost five minutes slower than her personal best from Chicago last year. While the Dutchwoman is yet to confirm what events she will compete in at the Olympics, this performance will likely encourage her to refocus on the shorter distances. She enjoyed so much success with her track treble in Tokyo, and including the marathon in her Paris schedule could harm her medal haul.
You can access the official results from the 2024 Tokyo Marathon here.