Men’s Sprints Preview
100m
My pick: Noah Lyles
I’ve gone back and forth on this one more than any other event, but Noah Lyles’ 9.81-second clocking to win the London Diamond League last week was exactly what I needed to put him back on top as the favourite heading into Paris. Lyles spent the indoor season perfecting his start, which saw him lower his personal best in the 60m from 6.51 seconds to 6.43 and win silver on his World Indoor Championships debut. He is the reigning 100m world champion, has the best top speed in the field, and will go to Paris having just set a new lifetime best. He’s only the third-fastest of 2024, but if you’re the speculative type, you could make a pretty decent argument that he’s the fastest man heading to the Olympics, as his 9.81-second clocking was into a slight headwind and converts to 9.79 in still conditions. Kishane Thompson’s world-leading 9.77 gets bumped down to a 9.81 when you factor in the tailwind, and Ferdinand Omanyala’s 9.79 victory at the Kenyan trials is only worth 9.90 when you adjust for the effects of altitude and wind. Again, this is all speculation, but even without it, Lyles will start in Paris as the most successful runner of the bunch.
Noah Lyles at the 2022 World Athletics Championships
The Challengers
Kishane Thompson
That being said, Lyles is far from a sure thing. Kishane Thompson has emerged as the new face of male sprinting in Jamaica, winning the trials in a world-leading 9.77 seconds after two impressive sub-9.85 performances in the rounds. In fact, Thompson’s average performance across his three races at the Jamaican trials is equal to Lyles’ new personal best. Couple that with his unbeaten 2024 season, and the big Jamaican emerges as a serious gold medal contender.
The one thing working against him is his inexperience. Just 23 years old, Thompson only broke 10 seconds for the first time last year and has never competed at a major championships.
Oblique Seville
Another man looking to bring the Olympic title back to what feels like its rightful home in Jamaica is Oblique Seville. Seville was second behind Thompson in 9.82 seconds at the Jamaican trials last month and will go to Paris as the only man to have beaten Lyles in the 100m in 2024. Seville, Lyles, and Thompson each have three of the top ten times in the world this year, so expect this trio to stamp their authority on the Olympic podium next month.
Ferdinand Omanyala
It’s safe to say Ferdinand Omanyala does not have your typical Kenyan build. When most people think of Kenyans at the Olympics, they picture wiry distance runners scared to go outside on a windy day for fear of blowing away. But not Omanyala. When a healthy tailwind pushed him to a 9.79-second season’s best at the national trials last month, the Commonwealth Champion wasn’t thinking about being whisked up into the sky (probably). He was likely contemplating redemption after unsuccessful Rio and Tokyo Olympic campaigns.
The probability of said redemption is high for Omanyala. He made his first outdoor global final at last year’s World Athletics Championships and his first indoor global final earlier this year at the World Indoor Championships. He has won his last four races and is the only man outside the Lyles/Thompson/Seville trio to feature in the top 10 on the 2024 rankings, which has put him in the medal conversation for the first time in his career.
Ferdinand Omanyala at the 2023 World Athletics Championships
110mH
My pick: Grant Holloway
They say you don’t win silver; you lose gold. That was certainly the case for America’s Grant Holloway in Tokyo, but his preparations ahead of the Paris Olympics show that he is more than ready to claim the title this time.
Since that shock upset three years ago, Holloway has raced 65 times. In that period, only two men have posed any real threat to him: Hansle Parchment and Rasheed Broadbell. Neither of those men have run within three-tenths of Holloway this year, and Holloway beat both of their lifetime bests – which have secured them 13th and 16th on the all-time list – multiple times last month alone. The American has won all 15 of his races this year, has the fastest time in the world, and is the reigning back-to-back world champion. He also proved that the championship format has little impact on him when he broke 13 seconds three times in five days to win all three rounds at the US Olympic trials (nobody else has broken that barrier more than once this year). The quickest hurdler of his generation has one medal missing from his trophy cabinet, and it’s very difficult to see anyone denying him this year.
The Challengers
There are none. Barring Holloway tripping over a hurdle and falling flat on his face, there is nobody who can challenge this man. If he does lose in Paris, then the Olympic favourite curse is real, and Holloway must spend as much time bathing in holy water as he does training in the lead-up to the 2028 Olympics.
Grant Holloway at the 2023 World Athletics Championships
200m
My Pick: Noah Lyles
The last time Noah Lyles lost a 200m race was in the 2021 Olympic final. Since then, he has competed over the half-lap distance 25 times, broken 20 seconds on 22 of those occasions, added four World Championship golds to his trophy cabinet, become the third fastest 200m runner in history, and pissed off the entire NBA. He has also been very vocal about his desire to become the greatest of all time, which is no mean feat considering who that title currently belongs to.
If Lyles is serious about surpassing Usain Bolt, he has some catching up to do. In his eight years as a professional, the American has won six World Championships, zero Olympic titles, and broken no world records. In Bolt’s first eight years, he won five World Championships, five Olympic titles, and broke seven world records. Not much of a comparison to be had there.
However, when you compare Lyles to his own generation, it’s clear that he is a cut above the rest. He has been the reigning world 200m champion since 2019 and would dearly love to start his Olympic gold medal collection. I don’t see anyone getting past him in Paris and upsetting him this time.
The Challengers
Kenneth Bednarek
Lyles’ outspoken personality is divisive to say the least, and while nobody will pose a realistic threat to his Olympic 200m campaign next month, there will be plenty of people hoping for one anyway.
If there is to be a surprise challenger, his name might be Kenny Bednarek. Second behind Lyles at the USA national championships, Bednarek is also the second-fastest 200m runner of 2024. He was the last man to beat Lyles, having finished second at the 2021 Olympics, but his head-to-head success against the World Champion stops there. I feel like I’ve written “second” way too many times in this paragraph, but unfortunately for Bednarek, it’s the best word to sum up his career, and it’s a position he will likely be fighting for again in Paris.
Erriyon Knighton
Not that an Olympic silver medal ever comes easily, but two young stars in Erriyon Knighton and Letsile Tebogo will make standing on that second step of the podium particularly difficult this year. Knighton had a rocky start to 2024: in April, he was provisionally suspended for testing positive to a banned substance, but after an independent arbitrator ruled that Knighton had unknowingly ingested it when he ate some contaminated meat, he was cleared and able to compete at the USA national trials. It was quite the ordeal for the 20-year-old, but he bounced back to finish third at the trials and secure his spot on the Olympic team. Most recently, he won the Holloway Pro Classic and was earmarked by none other than Usain Bolt as the future of the event. Despite a delayed start to his season, Knighton has already risen to sixth on the 2024 rankings, and when you also consider he is one of just five people to have ever broken 19.50 seconds, it’s easy to see why so many people are talking about him. Paris will be his second Olympics, having finished fourth in Tokyo when he was just 17.
The U.S. men’s 200m Olympic team
Letsile Tebogo
Letsile Tebogo is the man with the best chance of breaking up an American sweep. Less than a year older than Knighton, the Botswanan prodigy finished third in the 200m and second in the 100m at last year’s World Athletics Championships. His 2024 season is shaping up to be similarly successful, and he’s the only man going to Paris who has broken 20 seconds in every competition this year: a fact made even more impressive when you consider that most of his races have been into strong headwinds. He is the third fastest 200m runner of 2024, the sixth fastest of all time, and will head to the French capital in search of his first global senior title.
But Olympic glory isn’t the only thing motivating this young man. Tebogo has never known his father, which made his mother’s passing in May that much more tragic. He is now responsible for his 12-year-old sister and rightly put his season on hold for six weeks to spend time at home with her and the rest of his extended family. He ran his first 200m since April in Monaco earlier this month, crushing the field and paying tribute to his mother.
“Everything I do now is for her, not for me.”
400m
My pick: Matthew Hudson-Smith
Personal best. World lead. European record. Matthew Hudson-Smith could not have asked for a better performance a week before the Olympic opening ceremony. The silver-medallist from the 2023 World Athletics Championships will go to Paris with dreams of gold, looking for redemption after failing to make the Tokyo team three years ago.
The Challengers
Steven Gardiner
Steven Gardiner is an interesting case. Injury has forced the reigning Olympic champion out of the last two World Championships, but the Bahamian has gone undefeated this year and looks ready to take to the world’s biggest stage once again. Gardiner has actually gone undefeated for the last seven (!) years, with his most recent loss over the one-lap distance coming back in 2017, when he picked up silver at the World Athletics Championships in London. He has won 34 400m races in a row, which have included world and Olympic titles and a very handy personal best of 43.48, which comes in at sixth on the all-time list. The only reason I haven’t put him as the favourite is because his season’s best of 44.39 seconds places him at just 15th on the 2024 rankings.
Steven Gardiner prays after winning the men’s 400m at the 2021 Olympics
Quincy Hall
The USA 400m national champion always carries heavy expectations heading into a global championship, and rightfully so: the country boasts eight of the top ten fastest athletes in history and has won this event 19 times at the Olympic level – the next closest country has won it twice. This year, that honour/burden falls to Quincy Hall, who joins Hudson-Smith as the only other man to have broken 44 seconds this year. Hall has never beaten Hudson-Smith head-to-head, but with a 2023 World Championship bronze medal hanging up at home and the second-fastest time of the year, he has rightfully earned his place in the Olympic title conversation.
Alexander Doom
If nothing else, having DOOM written in capital letters on your national singlet makes for a really cool camera shot. The reigning world indoor 400m champion has broken 45 seconds in every outdoor race this season, most recently winning the European championships in 44.15 seconds. Unfortunately for Alexander Doom, Paris has quite a crowded medal picture, and it’s one that doesn’t necessarily involve him. He has never made it out of the semi-finals at an outdoor global championship, but the Belgian will carry lots of momentum into Paris on the back of his recent lifetime best performance, so expect him to be challenging for the minor medals at the very least.
400m Hurdles
My pick: Rai Benjamin
Rai Benjamin, Karsten Warholm, and Alison Dos Santos – the three overwhelming favourites for the men’s 400m hurdles title – raced each other in Monaco earlier this month. Their clash prompted me to preview their chances ahead of the Olympics, and so rather than repeat myself, you can read my Monaco Diamond League recap here.
You can access all start lists for the 2024 Paris Olympics here.