2024 Boston Marathon Preview
The oldest marathon in the world is back for its 128th edition this Monday. Despite its many hills, the Boston Marathon actually has a net downhill course, making it the only record-ineligible World Marathon Major. In short, nobody cares what time you run in Boston, which reduces the race to just that: a race. Over the years, the organic rivalries and dramatic tactics have consistently produced some of the most exciting storylines of the global marathon calendar, and 2024 will be no different.
Elite Women
It’s been 19 years since a woman successfully defended her title in Boston, but that shouldn’t faze Hellen Obiri. It had been 34 years since a woman had won in Boston and New York in the same year, and that’s exactly what Obiri did in 2023.
The Colorado-based Kenyan is the only woman in history to have won world indoor, outdoor, and cross country titles, and she comes to Boston in search of her third consecutive marathon victory. Her coach, Dathan Ritzenhein, is “confident that her fitness is the best it’s been for a marathon.”
At last year’s event, Obiri made her first and only move in the final two kilometres, and at the New York Marathon a few months ago, she waited until the home straight to outkick her competition. If the former track superstar follows this trend, she will reduce Monday’s race to a simple sit-and-kick and will be very hard to beat indeed.
A win in the Massachusetts capital will also likely solidify her spot on the Kenyan team for the Paris Games. Obiri has twice medalled at the Olympics and hasn’t lost a marathon since her debut two years ago, so it would be strange if Athletics Kenya – which has shortlisted Obiri in its Olympic marathon squad – doesn’t select her. But, as you’ll see when we talk about Evans Chebet, Athletics Kenya doesn’t always make the smartest decisions, and poor spring results have spooked them before. Ahead of the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics, Mary Keitany was left off the team after a 9th place finish at the London Marathon, despite a prior string of strong performances. She went on to win her next two races, which included setting a world record when she returned to the London Marathon the following year.
The Boston Athletic Association has assembled the strongest field in the event’s history to challenge Obiri. On paper, that challenge is led by Ethiopia’s Tadu Teshome and Hiwot Gebrekidan, the only two women to have broken 2:18. But, as I mentioned, times don’t mean as much in Boston. Last year, Teshome raced in three different marathons and finished off the podium on every occasion, and Gebrekidan was only eighth in Boston and failed to finish in Berlin.
In fact, it’s feasible that none of the nine women with personal bests under 2:20 even make the podium. Obiri is just 16th (!) fastest on paper and is still the overwhelming favourite, and Mary Ngugi-Cooper, Ababel Yashaneh, and Sharon Lokedi – none of whom have cracked 2:20 – are her most likely challengers.
Sharon Lokedi (M) leads Hellen Obiri (R) and Letesenbet Gidey (L) over the closing stages of the 2023 New York Marathon
Ngugi-Cooper is a multiple global medallist on the roads and won her tune-up race at the Rome-Ostia Half Marathon last month. She also has plenty of experience in Boston, having run the race four times and medalled twice.
Two years ago, Yashaneh came just four seconds shy of winning in Boston, and last year she recovered from a fall in the closing stages for fourth. The Ethiopian loves to race in the United States and has finished on the podium in New York, Chicago, and Boston. However, she has never stood on the top step. Is this the year the former half marathon world record holder wins her first marathon?
Lokedi had a promising college career, but it took her a while to find professional success after she graduated. Her breakout performance finally came at the 2022 New York Marathon when she pulled off an enormous upset to win the race and beat the likes of Obiri. Her 2023 season was plagued by injury, but the Kenyan was able to put herself together in time to return to New York, where she finished third. This race will be her first marathon outside of The Big Apple and is particularly important for her: like Obiri, Lokedi is also on the Kenyan shortlist for the Paris marathon squad. Unlike Obiri, she is almost certain not to make the team if she runs poorly on Monday.
Elite Men
It’s rare these days for it to be so difficult to pick a favourite at a Major Marathon, but the men’s race at the 2024 Boston Marathon is wide open.
Any one of five men could take home the title without it being an upset, but Evans Chebet is perhaps the one with the most to lose. The Kenyan has won the past two editions of this race: in 2022, he ran a staggering 13:55 for the 5km segment from 35-40km to break away from the field, and last year he outclassed marathon legend Eliud Kipchoge to successfully defend his title. Coupled with the fact that those Boston performances were split with a win at the 2022 New York Marathon, and that he boasts a 2:03:00 personal best, many in the running world are trying to work out why Athletics Kenya hasn’t named him in its provisional Olympic marathon squad. It’s true that Chebet had to withdraw from the New York Marathon last year due to an Achilles injury (a problem that has continued to bother him during his Boston training), but we are still a long way from the Paris Olympics. If he can prevail on Monday despite a hindered buildup, it will surely force Athletics Kenya to reconsider him.
If Chebet were at his best, he would be the clear favourite. However, he probably isn’t, which realistically leaves the door open for four other men to challenge for the title.
Sisay Lemma is coming off the best race of his life after he stormed to a 2:01:48 victory in Valencia last year. That performance put him in the company of Kelvin Kiptum, Eliud Kipchoge, and Kenenisa Bekele as the only men in history to break 2:02. Nevertheless, Lemma and the Boston Marathon have had a terrible relationship. The Ethiopian failed to complete the race in 2017 before finishing 30th in 2019 and dropping out again in 2022. Given his success on the flat roads of Valencia, it’s somewhat surprising he didn’t elect to race at the historically fast London Marathon next weekend. Despite being the quickest in the field by more than a minute, there’s every chance he finds himself struggling once again.
The next fastest man in the field is Gabriel Geay. The Tanzanian also ran his lifetime best at the Valencia Marathon but, unlike Lemma, has found a way to effectively translate his speed to the hills of Boston. Monday will mark the third time in as many years that Geay has lined up in Massachusetts, with his last two outings bringing him very respectable fourth and second place finishes.
Evans Chebet (L) and Gabriel Geay (R) compete over the closing stages of the 2023 Boston Marathon
Meanwhile, Albert Korir seems to most enjoy running a few hours south of Boston, having won the New York Marathon in 2021 and crossed the line second in 2019 and 2023. The two races require a similar skillset, and Korir will rightfully be looking to improve upon his fourth-place finish from Boston last year.
Finally, Shura Kitata will be hoping to reinstate himself atop the distance running world. The Ethiopian has an impressive history, finishing on the podium in more than two-thirds of his career marathons, but he is most well-known for winning the 2020 London Marathon and bringing an end to Kipchoge’s ridiculous 11-race, six-year win streak. Despite this, Kitata’s head-to-head record against the other four men I have mentioned means he is perhaps the least likely victor of Monday’s race. Still, if he can beat a prime Kipchoge, who am I to say he can’t beat an undercooked Chebet?
Find out how you can watch the 2024 Boston Marathon here.