Men’s Distance Preview
5000m
My pick: Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Such is his affinity for the middle-distance races that it’s easy to forget Jakob Ingebrigtsen is the back-to-back 5000m world champion. While his finishing kick may not be the strongest in a world-class 1500m, he has no problem using it against 5000m specialists. Last year, he defended his title with a 52-second final lap, a mark that nobody in this year’s field will likely be able to match.
Ingebrigtsen has never run an exceptionally quick 5000m, but he hasn’t needed to: the Norwegian hasn’t lost at the distance in five years. Even if the race does end up being abnormally fast, he should be able to rely on the strength that took him to the two-mile world best last year.
The Challengers
Hagos Gebrhiwet
That being said, Ethiopia is betting against Ingebrigtsen’s strength. The Ethiopian Athletics Federation (EAF) has controversially named Hagos Gebrhiwet, Biniam Mehary, and Addisu Yihune to the team at the expense of superstars like Berihu Aregawi and Yomif Kejelcha. Aregawi and Kejelcha are two of the greatest runners of all time, and both have publicly expressed their surprise and disappointment about being left off the 5000m squad for Paris.
Gebrhiwet clocked the second-fastest time in history when he ran 12:36 to win the Oslo Diamond League in May, so his selection is easily justified. But Mehary and Yihune are markedly worse than quite a few of their compatriots and have no chance of winning in Paris. In the end, this seemingly negative quality may be exactly why the EAF has selected them.
The only reasonable explanation is that Ethiopia is willing to sacrifice Mehary and Yihune to get Gebrhiwet across the line first. The country hasn’t won on the men’s side since Kenenisa Bekele stormed to victory back in 2008, and if they want to end that drought, they know they have to sap the finishing speed from Ingebrigtsen’s legs. My guess is that Mehary and Yihune will try to ensure the pace is honest from the start, meaning all Gebrhiwet has to do is focus on replicating his effort from Oslo a few months ago. That’s much easier said than done, but you know what they say: go big or go home.
Hagos Gebrhiwet celebrates winning the 5000m at the Oslo Diamond League in a new Ethiopian record
Jacob Kiplimo
The passing of the torch between Joshua Cheptegei and Jacob Kiplimo has been a long and uncertain affair that has made for exciting viewing over the last few years, but Paris may finally see Kiplimo coronated as the new king of Ugandan distance running. Cheptegei is still the world record holder and the Olympic champion in the 5000m, but it’s been years since he has been in peak form, and in that time, Kiplimo has made a habit of beating him. Their most recent clash over 5000m was in May, where Kiplimo put more than 10 seconds into his compatriot.
Unfortunately for Kiplimo, his finishing kick leaves something to be desired, so expect him to feature more heavily in the 10,000m a few days earlier. Nevertheless, the Ugandan recently ran a personal best of 12:40.96, which makes him the fourth-fastest athlete of the last 12 months. Thanks to Ethiopia leaving Aregawi (12:40.45) and Kejelcha (12:38.95) off their 5000m team, Kiplimo will start in Paris with the second-fastest season’s best.
Jacob Krop
If Ethiopia is upset that they haven’t won this event since 2008, spare a thought for Kenya. The world’s other distance-running powerhouse is having quite the dry spell in the men’s 5000m, having last claimed Olympic gold back in 1988. Kenyan fans will tentatively hope that Jacob Krop is the solution to their problem, although the effective silver-medallist* from last year’s World Athletics Championships is in unreliable form. Krop was only second at his national trials last month, but his 12:45 personal best and impressive closing speed certainly put him in the conversation for a medal.
*Mohamed Katir, runner-up in the men’s 5000m at the 2023 World Athletics Championship, has since been suspended from the sport. His medals are yet to be stripped, but it is expected that Krop will soon be upgraded from bronze to silver. Therefore, Krop is the effective silver medallist from Budapest.
10,000m
My Pick: Yomif Kejelcha
Yomif Kejelcha isn’t the overwhelming favourite, but his performances over the last 18 months certainly indicate he’s the one to beat.
Kejelcha’s most impressive skill is his range. The indoor mile world record holder ran the fourth fastest time in history for 5000m with a 12:38 performance in May, just seven months after becoming the third fastest half-marathoner of all time with his 57:41 late last year. This combination of speed and endurance has served him well in the 10,000m, carrying him to a world-leading 26:31 victory at the Ethiopian trials last month and a world-leading 26:37 on the roads back in March. The tall Ethiopian will line up in Paris with a decade of international experience, the widest range in the field, and the fastest season’s best on the track and the road. He will also have a point to prove after being snubbed by the selectors in the 5000m, so expect him to be fighting hard for his first Olympic medal on Saturday.
The Challengers
Berihu Aregawi
However, Kejelcha won’t have it easy in Paris. One-tenth of a second was his winning margin at the Ethiopian trials, with countryman Berihu Aregawi having pushed him to the line to also finish in 26:31. Aregawi set the world record for the road 10km with his 26:33 clocking last year, holds the 5km world record, and is the back-to-back silver medallist from the World Cross Country Championships. He also leads Kejelcha 3-2 in their head-to-head record, and after finishing fourth in this event at the last Olympics and World Championships, will go to Paris eager to win his first senior medal on the track.
Selemon Barega
Reigning Olympic champion Selemon Barega rounds out the strongest Ethiopian team in 10,000m history. The iconic trio of Kenenisa Bekele, Haile Gebrselassie, and Silishe Sihine from Athens would perhaps disagree with that statement, and while the current crop of stars are yet to cement their legacies in the sport, they have a very good chance of improving upon Ethiopia’s first, second, and fifth from 2004. Biniam Mehary ran 26:37 and didn’t make the 2024 team, which is just ridiculous and shows you the insane depth of that country.
Since winning the Olympic 10,000m final in Tokyo three years ago, Barega has become a World Indoor Champion and picked up a couple of other global medals. He is the slowest Ethiopian on paper (he was third at the national trials where the top three all ran personal bests), but he did have an undefeated record against Aregawi and Kejelcha before that race.
Selemon Barega crosses the line to win the 10,000m at the Tokyo Olympics
Joshua Cheptegei
Joshua Cheptegei will be looking to spoil the Ethiopian party. Since breaking the 5000m and 10,000m world records back in 2020, the Ugandan has, by his exceptionally high standards, performed poorly. He did win the 5000m at the Olympics, but he only finished ninth at the World Championships the following year and didn’t even make it to the start line in 2023. He barely made the podium at the 2023 World Cross Country Championships and faded to sixth earlier this year in Serbia. His marathon debut was a mess that saw him cross the line in 37th, and he’s only won two track races in the last two years.
The only exception – and the source of those two victories – has been the annual world 10,000m final. In 2022 and 2023, Cheptegei turned up to the World Athletics Championships with people questioning his form and pulling up results that showed he wasn’t what he used to be. And, in 2022 and 2023, Cheptegei walked away as the 10,000m world champion, a title he has now held since 2019.
True, the Cheptegei of old does not exist anymore, but the Cheptegei of old ran 26:11 for 10,000m. How long did we expect him to hang around? Distance runners rarely stay in world record-breaking form year after year, and perhaps it is time to stop comparing Cheptegei to the world record: we don’t compare anyone else to it.
At the end of the day, Cheptegei does not win many races during the season, but he is the reigning back-to-back-to-back 10,000m world champion, the silver medallist from Tokyo, the world record holder, and has a personal best more than 20 seconds faster than anyone else in the field. Don’t write him off.
Jacob Kiplimo
I wrote about Jacob Kiplimo in the 5000m, but his strength as the world record holder in the half-marathon will be more useful in the 10,000m. The back-to-back World Cross Country Champion is the fifth fastest 10km runner in history and finished third in Tokyo back in 2021. Although Kiplimo has never beaten Cheptegei in a 10,000m, the two Ugandans are tied at six wins apiece in the rest of their career matchups. Once you consider his 12:40 5000m performance in May and his undefeated road and cross country seasons, Kiplimo emerges as a man with as much potential to challenge for the gold as his countryman. Cheptegei and Kiplimo have successfully put Uganda on the map as the third East African distance running powerhouse, and they’re not finished with the track scene yet.
Jacob Kiplimo (R) and Joshua Cheptegei (L) after finishing first and third at the 2023 World Cross Country Championships
Grant Fisher
American fans of the men’s 10,000m haven’t had much to cheer about since an L-Carnitine infused Galen Rupp followed his teammate home for silver in London 12 years ago. Enter, Grant Fisher.
Fifth at the 2021 Olympics and fourth at the 2022 World Championships, Fisher probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves. His 26:33 American record placed him seventh on the all-time list (now ninth) and put him alongside Rupp and Chris Solinsky as the only three non-African born athletes to have a 10,000m time in the top 200.
Unfortunately for Fisher, his change of speed is nowhere near the level of the Africans. Such is the depth in Paris that there is no scenario in which he is fighting for gold down the home straight, but a minor medal isn’t out of the question.
You can access all start lists for the 2024 Paris Olympics here.