800m

My pick: Djamel Sedjati

The running world has been searching for David Rudisha’s successor since his retirement in 2017. Djamel Sedjati may be the first man capable of filling that role.

Sedjati’s unbeaten 2024 season has been the most impressive display of middle-distance running we’ve seen in a long time. His first few races of the year were won with a devastating finishing kick that quickly became the bane of his competitors, but his last two outings have really cemented his position as the favourite for Paris.

The first of those two races came at the Paris Diamond League earlier this month, where he went head-to-head with Emmanuel Wanyonyi, who was fresh off a world-leading 1:41.70 from the Kenyan national trials.

Rudisha has publicly stated on many occasions that he believes Wanyonyi is the future of the event. Still just 19 years old, Wanyonyi claimed the silver medal at last year’s World Athletics Championships in the 800m and had also enjoyed an unbeaten track season heading into the Paris Diamond League, where he was touted as the man to beat.

But beat him, Sedjati did. Proving that his finishing speed was still very much a threat in a faster race, Sedjati replaced Wanyonyi at third on the all-time list with a 1:41.56. Five days later, he won the 800m at the Monaco Diamond League in 1:41.46, easing past reigning World Champion Marco Arop in the final straight and putting more than half a second into the rest of the field in just a few strides.

For most of his career, Rudisha was untouchable over the two-lap distance. The Kenyan held a masterclass in frontrunning every time he stepped onto the track, which is why, for the last decade, his successors have all tried to do the same thing. Sedjati is bucking that trend with remarkable results, having only moved to the front in the last 100m of all four of his 800m races this year. He has shown that he can win regardless of what tactics his opponents use and will be very hard to get past at the Olympics.

*Djamel Sedjati celebrates winning the 800m at the Monaco Diamond League*

The Challengers

Emmanuel Wanyonyi

If anyone can get past him, it will be Wanyonyi. The teenager is an enormous talent who fully subscribes to Rudisha’s frontrunning strategy, meaning Sedjati will have to go around the outside if he is to get past him. Wanyonyi only lost to his Algerian counterpart by 0.02 seconds at the Paris Diamond League, and with more championship success and the world record holder for a mentor, it would be foolish to rule him out.

Marco Arop

Speaking of championship success, we mustn’t forget reigning world champion Marco Arop. The Canadian hasn’t run as quickly as Sedjati or Wanyonyi, sitting all the way down in 11th on the 2024 rankings, but he knows how to navigate the rounds and has been trending in the right direction all year after recovering from an undisclosed injury.

Gabriel Tual

Gabriel Tual has had a breakthrough year and was third behind Sedjati and Wanyonyi at the Paris Diamond League in 1:41.61. A 1:42.10 for another third-place finish at the Monaco Diamond League proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder, and his 2024 season has seen him leap from 191st on the all-time list to 5th. Some call it training, some call it supershoes, some call it “chemical enhancements.” Whatever the explanation, the Frenchman will be looking to impress in front of his home crowd next month and is a serious contender for a medal.

1500m

My pick: Josh Kerr

The Challenger: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

I’m going to write about these two at the same time because their dynamic has made them inseparable over the last 12 months (in the media’s eye, at least – they haven’t met much in 2024, but they get asked about each other at every opportunity).

Earlier this year, Ingebrigtsen told The Times that defending his Olympic 1500m title would be “a walk in the park.”

And yet, most would argue the Norwegian isn’t even the favourite heading to Paris.

Kerr and Ingebrigtsen have been locked in a war of words for the better part of a year now, with both men getting in some pretty entertaining jabs and spicing up a sport that usually lacks these sorts of rivalries. However, it’s not been quite so evenly matched on the track.

Since Kerr beat Ingebrigtsen to the 1500m world title last year (the catalyst for their ensuing conflict), Kerr has set an indoor two-mile world best, picked up a world indoor title over 3000m, and beaten Ingebrigtsen at the Bowerman Mile. He’s won everything he’s touched this year, from 800m to two miles (except the 800m at his national championships, where he fell in the final 100m).

Ingebrigtsen’s 2024 has gone slightly differently. After spending the winter sidelined by an Achilles injury, the Norwegian opened his season by finishing second to Kerr in the mile. He then returned to Oslo to race in the 1500m in his home Diamond League, during which he had to quite literally dive over the line to beat a resurgent Timothy Cheruiyot. However, true to his word, he has improved throughout the year, winning the European and Norwegian 1500m and 5000m titles and most recently running a personal best of 3:26.73 to become just the fourth man in history to break 3:27. They say you’re only as good as your last innings: if that’s true, Ingebrigtsen is really good.

The Norwegian is the reigning Olympic champion and the fastest 1500m runner of this generation and will certainly head to Paris as one of the favourites. However, unlike years past, he does not have that same aura of invincibility about him. Meanwhile, Kerr hasn’t been threatened all year, has beaten Ingebrigtsen in their last two head-to-heads, and since becoming the 1500m world champion has both widened and sharpened his range.

*Josh Kerr sets a new indoor two-mile world best at the 2024 Millrose Games*

Nevertheless, some people have pointed out that Kerr’s 3:29.05 personal best against Ingebrigtsen’s 3:26.73 is all the information they need to pick a clear winner.

What they have failed to consider is that the Olympics is not a time trial. It doesn’t have rabbits, and most people don’t run their personal bests in an Olympic final. These races are a tactical affair in which the best runner – not necessarily the fastest (yes, there’s a difference) – wins. Case in point, Ingebrigtsen ran 3:27.14, his personal best at the time, the month before losing the World Championship final to Kerr, who was third in that same race a month earlier and more than two seconds off the pace.

So, if the Olympics is all about tactics, what can Kerr and Ingebrigtsen do to beat each other? First off, it’s worth mentioning that the race is only tactical for the favourites. There’s no tactic on earth that would put someone like me within 300m of the leaders, so how fast you can run is obviously a very important factor. Tactics only become relevant at the pointy end of things where races are decided by thousandths of a second, which is currently a place only occupied by Kerr and Ingebrigtsen.

The key difference between these two is that Ingebrigtsen needs to be proactive, while Kerr can be reactive. Kerr has a better kick, more championship awareness, fewer rounds to contend with, has the benefit of having beaten Ingebrigtsen twice in a row, and has run his seasons best in the annual global final three years in a row (love him or hate him, the Briton knows how to peak). Ingebrigtsen only has one, albeit very powerful, weapon in his arsenal: he can run 1500m in 3:26.

By that logic, Kerr won’t want an overly quick early pace so that he can save something for his finishing kick, and Ingebrigtsen will only want a quick early pace so that he can sap that very kick from his rival’s legs.

When you consider all this, it’s easy enough to boil the Olympic final down to a checklist:

Is Ingebrigtsen leading with three laps to go?
Is either Yared Nuguse or Timothy Cheruiyot in front of Kerr at 400m, meaning he will have to go around them at some point?
Did Ingebrigtsen run a fast second lap and then a faster third lap?
Did Ingebrigtsen take the bell in under 2:34?

If your name is Jakob Ingebrigtsen and you answered yes to all these questions, congratulations! You have (probably) successfully defended your Olympic 1500m title!

However, if you answered no to any of the above, Kerr’s combination of strength and speed may mean you have to watch him come up onto your shoulder with 100m to go, just like in Budapest 12 months ago.

Whether you’re Team Kerr or Team Ingebrigtsen, it’s pretty clear that these two are the only ones capable of winning in Paris. Unless they get into a punch-up in the call room – in which case you can expect the likes of Yared Nuguse, Cole Hocker, and Timothy Cheruiyot to be fighting for Olympic gold – this really will be a two-horse race.

*Jakob Ingebrigtsen celebrates winning the men’s 1500m at the Tokyo Olympics*

You can access all start lists for the 2024 Paris Olympics here.

Men’s Middle-Distance Preview