The New Generation: A 2024 Berlin Marathon Preview
The curtain has officially been drawn on the 2024 track season, which can only mean one thing: the Autumn marathons are upon us.
As usual, the Berlin Marathon is first up on the calendar. The race will celebrate its 50th anniversary this Sunday, the third of the six World Marathon Majors to achieve the milestone.
Not one to suffer from middle-child syndrome, the event has played host to 9 of history’s 12 World Athletics-ratified marathon world records and boasts a reputation of being the fastest marathon in the world for both elites and amateurs. This year, a touch over 50,000 runners will take on the pancake flat course, making it the second biggest marathon in history behind only the 2018 New York Marathon (~53,000 entrants).
Elite Women
As the (reassuring) saying goes: bigger is not always better. The mass participation event might be breaking records, but the professional athletes certainly won’t be.
Rosemary Wanjiru’s withdrawal earlier this week leaves Tigist Ketema as the only sub-2:18 woman in the field, a far cry from the 10 that toed the start line at the most recent World Marathon Major in London. This is not a new problem for Berlin: the race takes place only a month after the Olympics, meaning every four years, it becomes infinitely harder to convince the big names to turn up.
Case in point, of the eleven women who have won the Berlin marathon in an Olympic year, only two of them ever won any of the other five Marathon Majors during their careers. That list isn’t going to grow this weekend, either; none of the athletes going to Berlin have ever won a Major.
It’s rare to see a middle-distance runner hang up their spikes and step straight onto a marathon start line, but that’s exactly what pre-race favourite Tigist Ketema did earlier this year. A 1500m specialist for all of 2023, Ketema shocked the distance running world when she stormed to a two-minute victory at the Dubai Marathon in January to clock the fastest marathon debut in history. Perhaps aware that even a 2:16:07 on debut wouldn’t be good enough for the Ethiopian Athletics Federation, Ketema lined up in London three months later in an attempt to bolster her resume. However, the quick turnaround was too much for the 25-year-old, who finished seventh in 2:23:21 and failed to make the team headed to Paris.
Ketema hasn’t raced since then (there isn’t a whole lot of road racing on offer between London and Berlin), but my guess is that she’s much closer to 2:16 shape again. Dubai and Berlin have similar course profiles, and we saw what she could do on that course after a proper build-up. She’s the fastest on paper by almost two minutes, so I think we’ll see her on the podium at the very least.
Another Ethiopian looking for her maiden Marathon Major win is Genzebe Dibaba. Genzebe comes from the fastest family in Ethiopia: her cousin is the president of the Ethiopian Athletics Federation and was the first black African woman to win an Olympic title, and her sister is a three-time Olympic champion, former world record holder, and nine-time world champion. Genzebe holds the indoor world records over 1500m, 3000m, and 5000m and has six world titles to her name, but her marathon career has thus far been uninspiring. She debuted two years ago, finishing second at the Amsterdam Marathon behind her sister’s long-time rival, Almaz Ayana. Her time of 2:18:05 left her just 9 seconds shy of the Dibaba family record and put her in the top 20 on the global all-time list, but since then, she’s dropped out of the 2023 London Marathon and finished 6th in Chicago last October, more than 8 minutes behind the winner.
Genzebe hasn’t raced in 2024, so there’s no reference point from which to inform a prediction: she could win, come tenth, or fail to finish, and I wouldn’t be surprised. Her obvious genetic talent, incredible track career, and strong debut performance suggest she’s got a healthy road running career ahead of her, but whether that launches this Sunday remains to be seen.
Other women looking to challenge for the win will be Yebrugal Melese, the only other sub-2:20 athlete in the field (although that performance is now six years old), and Ababel Yeshaneh, who has been a minor medallist at three Marathon Majors in the last five years.
You may have noticed that none of the women in this preview are Kenyan. Wanjiru’s withdrawal means the country has no athletes in the top 10 on the elite start list, which is basically unheard of in modern marathon running. With Wanjiru out of the picture, Ethiopia is almost guaranteed to win this race for the fifth year in a row, which will be their longest winning streak in Marathon Major history.
Elite Men
For the first time in 10 years, neither Eliud Kipchoge nor Kenenisa Bekele will be at the Berlin Marathon. Instead, their much younger compatriots will attempt to prove themselves on the most hallowed marathon course in the world.
The fastest personal best in the field belongs to Ethiopia’s Tadese Takele, who finished third in last year’s race in a new U23 world best of 2:03:24. The former steeplechaser will be joined by Kenya’s Ronald Korir, who also set a personal best in Berlin last year when he finished fourth in 2:04:22. Korir is 11 years older than his Ethiopian counterpart and will start in his 20th international marathon this Sunday, where he will be looking to prove that experience can be just as advantageous as youth.
Tadese Takele finishes third at the 2023 Berlin Marathon
Former half marathon world record holder Kibiwott Kandie will also be in Berlin. With Eliud Kipchoge on the brink of retirement, and Kelvin Kiptum having passed away earlier this year, the Kenyan marathon throne has no heir-apparent. Reigning Tokyo Marathon champion and Olympic bronze medallist Benson Kipruto might become the successor by default, but if Kandie can win Kipchoge’s favourite race this Sunday, he will be well on his way to becoming the country’s best marathon runner.
Unlike Kipruto, Kandie is yet to fully commit to the marathon. He ran the 10,000m national trials in May and broke 27 minutes for the first time in his career (although he had previously done it on the roads), and he represented Kenya at the World Cross Country Championships last year. He did also run a marathon in 2023, but his 2:04:48 in Valencia was only good enough for sixth. Nevertheless, his half marathon personal best of 57:32 (2:43/km pace for those who can fathom running that quickly) suggests he is capable of something very fast over double the distance.
Kibiwott Kandie celebrates winning a bronze medal in the 10,000m at the 2022 Commonwealth Games
Berlin’s flat course makes it a great hunting ground for records, and more often than not, the race turns into a bit of a time trial. That’s not necessarily a problem - Assefa’s world record performance last year was amazing to watch, and she won by more than five minutes - but it does mean that we rarely see a fight to the line. However, the men’s field this year is far too weak to be chasing any sort of record, and with the top seven athletes separated by less than two minutes on paper, spectators might be treated to a competitive finish - something that has happened in Berlin since Geoffrey Mutai beat Dennis Kimetto by one second in 2012.
Find out how you can watch the 2024 Berlin Marathon here.