Women’s Distance Preview

5000m

My Pick: Faith Kipyegon

Fresh off a 1500m world record, Faith Kipyegon will head to Paris in the hopes of becoming the first woman to successfully pull off the 1500m/5000m double.

Kipyegon is the reigning 5000m world champion, thanks to a devastating final 200m last year fuelled by her 1500m speed. And while championship races do often come down to a finishing kick, it’s not like the Kenyan only wins in last-lap burnups – she’s the second fastest in history and hasn’t lost a 5000m race since 2015. Since winning the world title last year, Kipyegon has only gotten faster, which makes it almost impossible to bet against her.

The Challengers

Gudaf Tsegay

That being said, Gudaf Tsegay will offer fierce competition. The Ethiopian was only 13th at last year’s World Championships, but she did win the 10,000m and was the 5000m world champion the year before. She has also picked up world titles in events as short as the 1500m, meaning she has the range to respond to any moves Kipyegon might make. A long-time fixture on international podiums, Tsegay is the third fastest 1500m and 10,000m runner in history and the world record holder in the 5000m, with all three of those marks having come within the last 12 months.

Beatrice Chebet

Beatrice Chebet is more of a 10,000m specialist, but her presence in the 5000m will definitely be felt. The strongest of the three favourites from an endurance standpoint, Chebet is the reigning back-to-back World Cross Country Champion and holds the world record in the 10,000m and 5km road race. She’s the third fastest in history over 5000m, but just so happens to be coming up against the second- and first-fastest women in Kipyegon and Tsegay, both of whom also have better finishing kicks. Kipyegon had no problem dropping Chebet on the final lap at the Kenyan national trials earlier this year, and it’s unlikely to play out much differently in Paris. Chebet has been on the podium at the last two World Championships and will likely pick up another minor medal, but it’s difficult to see her getting to the front in the closing stages.

Faith Kipyegon (L) and Beatrice Chebet (R) celebrate their medals from the 5000m at the 2023 World Athletics Championships

10,000m

My Pick: Beatrice Chebet

She may not win the 5000m, but Chebet will have a very good chance of Olympic glory when she returns to the stadium four days later for the women’s 10,000m final.

When picking Olympic favourites, it’s usually important to look at an athlete’s range to gauge their strengths and weaknesses before considering the race tactics of the rest of the field. But sometimes, you have a 10,000m race, you pick the best 10,000m runner as the favourite, and your job is done.

Chebet loves to run this distance, and she’s very good at it. In March, she led a Kenyan sweep over 10km at the World Cross Country Championships to defend her crown. Two months later, she took to Hayward Field and upstaged her main rival, Gudaf Tsegay, putting 11 seconds into her in the final three laps to become the first woman to break 29 minutes.

Of course, the Olympic final is unlikely to be this quick, so there’s certainly room for others to stamp their authority. If we do look at range, we can talk about someone like Sifan Hassan, who has marathon running strength that would prove valuable in a messy race with lots of surges. However, Hassan has been inconsistent in 2024, and when it comes to picking a favourite, giving the nod to the fastest woman in history with a habit of performing on the global stage is never a bad idea.

Beatrice Chebet (R) and Gudaf Tsegay (L) lead the 10,000m at the 2024 Prefontaine Classic

The Challengers

Lillian Rengeruk

I’ve already mentioned Hassan’s inconsistency, and when you consider that Gudaf Tsegay has withdrawn from this race, the biggest threat to Chebet may come from within her own team. Lillian Rengeruk is the next best Kenyan, having come third behind Chebet and Tsegay at Hayward Field and second behind Chebet at the World Cross Country Championships. Like Chebet, Rengeruk comes to Paris in the form of her life, and her somewhat unique background as a 3000m specialist could prove dangerous if the field decides to make a long run for home.

You can access all start lists for the 2024 Paris Olympics here.