Men’s Marathon Preview
Kicking off the penultimate day of the Olympics will be the men’s marathon. Headlined by Kenenisa Bekele and Eliud Kipchoge, this will be the most historically significant race on the athletics calendar this year.
It will also be the best chance the rest of the world will have to challenge the East Africans on the international marathon stage. Last year, every medal from the six World Marathon Majors was awarded to an East African-born athlete; the same thing happened the year before. By contrast, since Kenya and Ethiopia became permanent fixtures at the Summer Olympics, East Africa has only won 15 out of a possible 24 men’s marathon medals. This is because these countries are only allowed to send three men to compete, whereas in races such as last year’s Berlin Marathon, the first 15 athletes across the line were East African.
There’s also the fact that the Olympic marathon is often run on a difficult course and in much tougher conditions compared to a World Marathon Major, which can expose cracks in the usually impenetrable armour of the Kenyans and Ethiopians. With expected highs of 27C and an elevation change more than three times greater than the average World Marathon Major, the 2024 Olympic marathon could yield some very surprising results.
That being said, the favourites this year are all East African-born.
The Favourite
Kipchoge has been the Olympic marathon champion since 2016, and while he will attempt to defend his crown in Paris, he’s not the favourite. Following the withdrawal of Sisay Lemma last week, that title now belongs to Kenya’s Benson Kipruto.
If nothing else, Kipruto has a habit of beating Kipchoge. In Kipchoge's twelve-year marathon career, nobody else has gotten the better of him more than once: Kipruto is three from three.
Besides a sloppy 2:13:24 debut in Greece in 2016, Kipruto has comfortably broken 2:10 in every race bar one – a hilly marathon in Czechia in 2021, which he won. Kipruto continued his winning ways later that year in Boston before returning to the Massachusetts capital to finish third in 2022. He won the Chicago marathon in October later that year and then found himself on the podium in both races again in 2023. It’s worth noting that the Boston Marathon is by far the hilliest of the World Marathon Majors and, therefore, perhaps the best indicator for success on the rolling Parisian course. Kipruto cemented his place on the Kenyan team earlier this year by winning the Tokyo Marathon in 2:02:16 for the fifth fastest time in history and will go to Paris as the fastest living Kenyan since Kipchoge’s 2:01:09 in 2022 (Kelvin Kiptum ran under 2:02 three times in that period but has since passed away).
Benson Kipruto wins the 2024 Tokyo Marathon in a new course record of 2:02:16
The Reserve
Tamirat Tola was somewhat controversially named as the Ethiopian reserve, but following Sisay Lemma’s withdrawal he has gotten the call up to run in Paris.
Only those with a short memory – like the Ethiopian Athletics Federation (EAF), it seems – would count Tola out. True, he has dropped out of two of his last three marathons, which is not a good sign: current form is particularly important in the marathon, and athletes failing to make it to the finish line is a problem that has plagued Ethiopia in recent Olympics. Across the last three Games, seven of the nine Ethiopian men have dropped out, including all three last year.
However, once you examine his larger body of work, it becomes clear that even the EAF should have given Tola the benefit of the doubt. Tola has an Olympic medal, a world marathon major victory, and a marathon world championship to his name. Sandwiched between those two recent DNFs was a 2:04:58 victory on a hilly New York Marathon course (although nothing compared to the Olympic course), in which he took down Geoffrey Mutai’s legendary course record. Earlier last year, he was third in London, and the year before, he made the podium in Tokyo and won the world title in Eugene.
Tola has been on the international scene long enough that the pressure of the Olympics will be of little concern to him. The hills could present a problem, but I would be cautiously optimistic that he can put together a strong performance next Saturday.
Tamirat Tola wins the 2023 New York Marathon
The Kenya vs Ethiopia Head-To-Heads
The Young Guns
While the track is a young man’s game, the marathon tends to reward experience over youth. Deresa Geleta and Alexander Mutiso are two men hoping to buck that trend.
The EAF puts what most consider to be an unhealthy amount of weight on an athlete’s most recent performance. In Geleta’s case, that most recent performance was a very impressive 2:03:27 at the Seville Marathon in February. However, it’s worth noting that the point-to-point course had an extremely favourable tailwind that saw 16 of the top 17 run personal bests, with an average improvement of almost two minutes! Prior to visiting Spain, Geleta had never come close to breaking 2:05 and had only gone under 2:07 twice. He has never raced any of the world’s best marathoners, took nine attempts to crack 2:10, and hasn’t run at a global championship, a World Marathon Major, or even just on a hilly course.
A man much more likely to feature at the front is Mutiso. The Kenyan may be one year younger than his Ethiopian counterpart, but his career has been longer and more successful. After medalling at the World Youth Championships on the track at 16, Mutiso competed consistently on the international stage for a decade before completing his first marathon. His debut saw him clock 2:03:29 for a podium finish in Valencia in a time that would have been the fastest debut in history had the late Kelvin Kiptum not beaten him to it by winning the race. Five months later, Mutiso won his first international marathon in Prague before returning to Valencia to improve upon his personal best and upgrade his bronze to silver. Most recently, he got the better of Kenenisa Bekele in a thrilling showdown to win his first World Marathon Major at this year’s London Marathon. He’s far from a household name, even if your household is really into marathons, but don’t be shocked if this man finds his way onto the podium in Paris.
Alexander Mutiso (L) and Kenenisa Bekele (R) lead the 2024 London Marathon
The Legends
Last year, when Kenenisa Bekele announced that he wanted to run at one final Olympics before retirement, it’s fair to say not many people thought it was possible. It had been more than a decade since he’d represented his country, and he would be 42 on race day. And yet, thanks to back-to-back 2:04 performances, Bekele will line up on the start line in Paris for his final Olympics. Alongside him will be defending champion Eliud Kipchoge, who is bidding to win an unprecedented third Olympic marathon title.
There’s something poetic about these two returning to Paris to compete against each other. Twenty-one years ago, an 18-year-old Kipchoge announced himself to the world when he beat Bekele to the world 5000m title in this very city. A year later, the roles were reversed as the pair went second and third in the 5000m at their first Olympic games. Two decades on, and they have become the greatest distance runners the two most important countries in this sport have ever produced. Kipchoge, the greatest marathon runner the world has ever seen, is a two-time Olympic champion, a former world record holder, and the first man to run a sub-two-hour marathon. Bekele, the greatest distance runner of all time, is a three-time Olympic champion, a four-time world record breaker, and an 18-time world champion. In nine days, this pair will bear the hopes and pride of their nations in what will probably be their final clash over the historic marathon distance.
Every running fan holds onto the pipe dream that these two legends – who have a combined age of 81 – will be fighting for the Olympic title down the Esplanade des Invalides next Saturday, but unfortunately, the reality will likely be different. Both men are past their prime, and while they will certainly be able to compete against the favourites, the photo finishes from their dominant days on the track have long passed.
Kenenisa Bekele (L) and Eliud Kipchoge (M) lead the men’s 5000m at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. They would go on to finish first and second
Conner Mantz, the fastest American going to Paris, was interviewed on the Citius Mag podcast at the U.S. Olympic trials in June.
“These guys [Kipchoge and Bekele] were running at the Olympics 20 years ago, and now they’re back. Where were you 20 years ago?”
“I was not thinking about running, that’s for sure. I was probably having my mum drop me to elementary school for first grade. What was I thinking? These guys were probably doing 120 miles a week back then and I was playing Pokémon at recess!”
Indeed, such is their dumbfounding longevity and impact on this sport that, as fans, we should be rooting for them to medal as much as we should be treating this like an epic victory lap following two of the most sparkling and inspiring careers of our time. For this reason, the men’s marathon is the most important event on the athletics calendar, and if you’re ever going to watch a two-hour race, now is the time.
Who else?
Abdi Nageeye
Abdi Nageeye is a 35-year-old Somalian-born athlete who fled to Europe aged six. He made his international debut at 18 at the European Cross Country Championships and, after a short and uninspiring track career, found his place on the roads. After finishing third in his 2014 marathon debut, Nageeye enjoyed a successful career over the longer distances. However, it took him seven years to return to the podium, which he finally did with a silver medal at the Tokyo Olympic marathon. Since then, he’s made four podiums, including two wins – the second of which came earlier this year when he won the Rotterdam Marathon in a new personal best of 2:04:45.
Bashir Abdi
Bashir Abdi is also a 35-year-old Somalian-born athlete who fled to Europe aged six and, as such, has a close bond with Nageeye. In fact, it was his Dutch counterpart that motivated him to hold off a charging Lawrence Cherono in the closing stages of the Tokyo Olympic marathon, which helped him secure the bronze medal by just two seconds.
Abdi has run 11 marathons in his career, the last nine of which have resulted in top-five finishes. His personal best of 2:03:36 from 2021 is the current European record; however, he hasn’t raced since October last year, so his current fitness level is unknown.
Abdi Nageeye (R) encourages Bashir Abdi (L) to hold off Lawerence Cherono in the closing stages of the 2021 men’s Olympic Marathon
Gabriel Geay
Until 2022, Gabriel Geay had a somewhat lacklustre résumé. After not making much of an impact over the shorter distances, he made an unsuccessful attempt at transferring to the marathon, dropping out of his first two races. In 2021, he finally made it to the finish line in a very respectable 2:04:55, which earned him a spot on the Tanzanian Olympic team headed to Tokyo: unfortunately, he dropped out of the race in Japan.
Luckily for Geay, 2022 would prove to be his breakout year. He finished fourth at the Boston Marathon in April and seventh at the World Championships in July before making it to his first podium with a 2:03:00 for second place in Valencia later that year. His time in the Spanish city is the 16th fastest in history and the only performance in the top 30 by a man from outside Kenya or Ethiopia.
His good fortune continued into 2023, where he enjoyed a second-place finish in Boston and a fifth-place finish in Valencia. However, his most recent outing saw him drop out of the 2024 Boston Marathon, which has prompted some questions over his readiness for the demanding Parisian course. Geay is only 27, which means he has plenty of successful marathons ahead of him, but it’s uncertain whether the 2024 Olympic marathon will be one of them.
You can find the full start list for the men’s marathon here.